No big surprise, the Senate did pass their version of the bill straight down party lines. Of course the Senators that got in line first (or last if you were Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Nebraska) appeared to be huge winners for their constituents. Click here to see the list of what the specific Senators won for their states (Concessions Lawmakers Won in the Health Bill). Kudos to them for looking out for their constituents. It is disheartening that the rest of the Senators sit on the sidelines and let their own constituents incur the cost of this “deal making”. It is a shame that the American bureaucracy has come to this–instead of people voting on legislation based on the strength of the legislation and the fair and equitable distribution of the cost of the government programs “that will benefit all Americans”, their votes could be simply “bought” by more government funding/subsidies while simultaneously transferring their costs to the rest of the country. To the voters of Illinois, it is important to note that neither of our Senators looked for any help or had any issue with the cost of the program that will begin to be shifted over to the states in 2017 despite the fact that the Illinois state budget gap is $10 billion heading into 2010 and despite the fact that our state bond rating has been downgraded earlier in the same month. It is also important to note that Illinois has the 5th largest population in the country so you can expect the “Federal government subsidy phase-out” (transferring liabilites to the states– with significantly more people eligible for the Medicaid subsidies than todays numbers) will have some of the largest financial impact on the state of Illinois (Illinois Debt Rating Cut by Standard & Poor’s).
I believe the American people “checked out” of the debate after the summer recess of the house with all the yelling and screaming at the town hall meetings. Despite the fact that most people do not like the legislation and/or have concerns about the legislation, my personal belief is that they have resigned themselves to the fact that our politicians do not listen to us and are going to do what they are going to do whether we like it or not (Republicans Want Democratic Healthcare Defectors).
The next few points directly relate to the most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scoring of the bill that passed the Senate (CBO letter of December 19, 2009 to Sen. Harry Reid [D-Nevada]). I do believe if this bill passes, it will end up hurting Americans for several reasons:
1.) The Plan is going to be way over budget, and it is going to hurt middle America. The reason? I cannot see any employer actually PAYING the “40% excise tax on the amounts that exceed a specific threshold… $8,500 per single policies and $23,000 for family” associated with the “high premium” insurance plans (Page 7 of the above 12/19/09 CBO lettter). Employers are already seeing their premiums rise at nearly unsustainable levels (which is why we are doing this, to make insurance more affordable right)? I do not see employers paying the premiums AND the 40% excise taxes associated with so called ”Cadillac plans”. Rather, I see employers AMENDING THEIR HEALTH PLANS (cutting benefits) provided to their employees to get the premiums to a level below the aforementioned levels thus not being subject to the tax! If you look at the Associated Press link above, you will see some of the unions were successful in getting THEIR PLANS carved out in terms of the ”high premium plan taxes”. Larger ”industries” that I did not see excluded were Teachers, City and Municipal governments (although police, fire and first responders were on the list). In the event these , tax payer funded (presumed Union represented) health plans hit the premium ceiling, tax payers can look forward to higher taxes or higher defecits to contend with in the event this legilsation goes into affect. Those people who are in smaller groups without union representation will most likely be seeing benefits cut in order to miss the tax implementation point. As for the unions that did not get the exclusion, I suspect those employers that are offering those plans will have significant financial challenges when the taxes are implemented because they will have a huge tax bill to contend with, yet be in the middle of a previously negotiated (prior to the tax implementation) contract term with the union. I suspect that when those contracts come up for negotiation, there will be serious issues to contend with as well. If my pojection is correct, there goes $149 billion dollars in alleged offsets of the government program, AND simultaneously millions of Americans just obsorbed a benefit CUT solely as a result of this legislation.
2.) The complete elimination of the pre-existing conditions gives “healthy people” little incentive to enroll in health plans. Today with pre-ex and underwriting, there are incentives to take it while you are healthy. Ironically, all other prior legislations include references to 63-day breaks in coverage–HIPAA, Medicare, Medicare Part D, etc. The reason why they have chosen the odd timeframe of 63 days?–because that guarantees everybody two full months’ time to procure other coverage regardless of which month they ”lose coverage” (for example, both December and January have 31 days and July and August have 31 days). People could (theoretically) not enroll, have no coverage for years, have a “pain” that they want to get checked out, apply for and be issued coverage, have the ”investigation/and subsequent treatment” fully covered, then drop out of the system once the matter has been resolved. Realize the whole premise of insurance is to spread the risk; in other words, “healthy” people pay for the claims of the “sick” people. This wording of the legislation really provides people THE INCENTIVE AND PROTECTION to enroll only when claims are eminent. The only liability to this methodology would be accidents or “sudden illnesses”, but my concern is that most people will see this as an opportunity or a false sense of security and, due to this liberal provision, be prone to rolling the dice.
3.) Mandates/penalties are ridiculously low. With premiums equating to several thousand dollars per year and penalties being well under $1,000, what type of incentive are you giving people? Couple that with the complete elimination of underwriting and pre-existing conditions and you have a perfect storm brewing. Sure, some revenue will be generated (for the Federal government–not the insurance companies who have to offer the guarantee issue coverage) but the “stick” is not nearly large enough to compel people to buy despite large government subsidies. You almost “make money” by not having the plan. See point 2 as to the likely outcome.
A.) Medicare cuts– the Federal government is cutting nearly $186 billion from Medicare, primarily directed at hospitals (see page 10 of the above CBO post). I know the Federal government is telling everyone that this will have no affect on their care, but I do not believe that hospitals (otherwise known as “non-MD expenses”) can afford to absorb $186,000,000,000 in cuts (yes, I intentionally typed the zeros) without affecting services in any way, shape or form. It simply defies logic; we all know there is waste in the system, but I do not believe it is anywhere near that magnitude. I do believe this is going to affect the services offered by hospitals with high Medicare populations and PRIVATE SECTOR PREMIUMS reflected in the next point (note this is IN ADDITION AND NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH the $118 Billion in Medicare Advantage funding cuts).
B.) When the Federal (and state) governments artificially suppress their payments to balance budgets (remember governments do not negotiate their pricing–they dictate it to the providers; there is no negotiation, it is simply the distribution of the reimbursement schedule), it causes the hospitals to “cost shift” their public sector “losses” over to the private sector in order to compensate or “balance the books”. Milliman did a comprehensive study on the phenomenon and what effect it has on the private sector (Hospital & Physician Cost Shift). Expect to see the PRIVATE SECTOR (insurance companies) claims prices to go dramatically higher to compensate for the cuts mentioned in point A (above). Of course, premiums are a factor of claims so you can expect these cuts to have further dramatic impact on the health insurance premiums for locals that use hospitals that will be hit hardest by these cuts!
C.) Hospitals that serve primarily Medicaid populations will be hurt. This bill is cutting $43 billion in funding that is presently paid to service Medicaid populations. Using Chicago, Illinois as an example, our COUNTY sales taxes are among the highest in the country in order to fund our local county hospital. John H. Stroger, Jr. Hospital (the new Cook County Hospital) located in the heart of the city of Chicago primarily serves the Medicaid and uninsured populations. If the Federal government cuts the funding further, what situation does that leave? The hospital to close? Or the city and state to make up the difference? Not only does Illinois have a $10 billion deficit today (before all of these cuts are instituted), but the city is already $250-300 million in debt (after ”selling” some of Chicago’s most lucrative parking structures, the Skyway (formerly a city owned tollway), parking meters and mandatory unpaid furloughs (Chicago Turns to Workers to Close Deficit). Who is going to make up this shortfall?
Realizing this is a blog whose message is supposed to be “short”, I will tie this up but our only hope at this point is that the House will step to the plate where the Senate left off. Certainly the Senate version of the bill is much stronger than the original House version, but we can only hope that the House brings further progress to this bill. We need an ENFORCEABLE mandate, a penalty with teeth that provides incentives for people to purchase coverage. We need pre-ex for people that willfully/intentionally go uninsured for longer than a 63-day period and guaranteed issue/no riders from the carriers for all people that do not have more than a 63-day break in coverage. We need the Federal government to actually pay their share of the healthcare tab in this country (versus trying to force it on the hospitals and private sector to cover their shares) rather than forcing through this huge, unpopular monstrosity that nobody really understands and financing sure to unravel that we cannot afford (even using their bogus data).